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The upcoming Autumn Budget is expected to be one of the most closely watched in recent years, with individuals, households and businesses facing persistent cost pressures and ongoing economic uncertainty.
And whilst the government has signalled its priorities around growth and fiscal stability, many of the final decisions remain finely balanced.
So, with multiple rumours circulating, we asked our team to share their thoughts about what could be included, how it might affect you, and what they’d do if they were in the Chancellor’s shoes on 26 November.
Luke Morris, Corporate Finance Partner
What changes would you like to see/ would you make as Chancellor?
“All politicians say that “Growth” is the way out of the muddle. So, when in office, why do they enact policies that stifle growth?
Tax, as share of the national GDP cake, has increased by about 10% over the past 30 years.
“For a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle” – Winston Churchill
In a fantasy world as Chancellor there would be fewer taxes, simpler taxes and lower taxes. No trade restrictions, customs, duty or other barriers to trade.
Because without the pressure of tax, more businesses thrive. There is more employment. There is more exchange and more prosperity. With more exchange and more prosperity, comes more exchange and more prosperity. And more optimism (AKA growth). Job done.”
What do you think we’ll see?
“More tax. The Chancellor has already admitted that last year’s “once in a Parliament” tax rises were nothing of the sort. We can all understand that the planted stories and rumours are a political game of the Overton Window being shifted. Expectation management, so that when the tax rises do come, the tenor of the announcement is that “it’s not as bad as it could have been”. But this political game creates uncertainty and speculation and has consequences for the real economy.”
What potential change will have the biggest impact on your sector/ service and how
“The timing of Capital Gains Tax on business sales is in the hands of the business owner. The tax regime is a big thing for them. Working in deals, changes to CGT and various reliefs give us cliff-edges, irrational behaviour and added stress. If the “big guns” – those taxes on ‘working people’ – are left alone, then I can see further meddling with CGT and further stress. If they are not, and the manifesto is well and truly binned, then we may not. I cannot tell you how busy we will be from December, and that sort of uncertainty makes life difficult for both us and our clients.”
Jack Deal, Business Advisory Partner
What changes would you like to see/ would you make as Chancellor?
“If I were Chancellor, I’d stand up on 26 November and level with the public. I’d say the country’s finances were much worse than anyone could have expected when Labour took over from the previous Government. I’d accept that the way we’d tried to solve that in the last Budget, i.e. without breaking our manifesto promise, hasn’t worked.
I’d say that, given the sums we’re talking about, the only way to approach things now is to break the manifesto promise and raise income tax.
BUT I’d do this in a way that didn’t make the low to middle earner worse off, restructuring the income tax bands for example as 0% on up to £15k, 22% on the next 40k, 42% on the next 65k and 47% beyond that (or whatever bands worked to raise the tax take without making the system more unfair on low to middle earners).
In doing that I’d do away with the penal 62% effective tax rate on income between 100k and 125k, to end the tax on ambition.
I’d also commit to no more faffing around with idealistic taxes which raise no money, for example inheritance tax on businesses.”
What do you think we’ll see?
“Sadly, I don’t think any of the above!
Instead, I think they’ll continue messing around the edges of the tax system with things like adding employers’ national insurance on LLP members profit shares, and ‘reforming’ tax systems in a way that makes anyone they deem to be ‘wealthy’ worse off.
If there’s a hole they’ll fill it. Even if that hole serves a purpose – e.g. the lower national insurance regime for the self-employed that recognises the risk of being self-employed. The government don’t seem to understand this.
I don’t think we’ll see an explicit wealth tax. But I do think we’ll see something like a 0.5% annual tax on the value of your property in place of council tax which effectively is taxing the wealthy.”
What potential change will have the biggest impact on your sector/ service and how?
“The Agricultural sector was demolished in the last budget. And I don’t think they can introduce anything on IHT that would make the situation worse. In fact, there is some talk that the Chancellor may revisit her October 2024 announcement. I’m not holding my breath on that one, but they can’t fund the sector less than they currently plan to.”
Simon Hurren, Private Client Tax Partner
What changes would you like to see/ would you make as Chancellor?
“I’d really like to see more simplification. It’s always on the agenda but seems to be much harder to achieve. The tax legislation is becoming ever more complex, and leaves people caught with unintended tax implications.
More specifically, related to pensions, the announcement at the last budget for pensions to fall within the scope of IHT from April 2027, can lead to double taxation. With the pension becoming subject to IHT and then the beneficiaries pay income tax when the remaining pot is drawn down. This feels unfair so I’d make a change here.”
What do you think we’ll see?
“What I do think we’ll see are changes to National Insurance contributions.
There’s been plenty of speculation of additional NIC being applied to rental income and more recently to members of LLPs. And this seems to sit well politically as it can be targeted to those who are perceived to have ‘the broadest shoulders’ – something clearly on the Government’s agenda.”
What potential change will have the biggest impact on your sector/ service and how?
“A lot of my clients would be massively impacted by any changes to the tax implications on gifts.
Currently gifts can be made to an individual without any IHT payable, providing the donor survives more than 7 years. A clear priority for us has been supporting family members, at the appropriate time, with significant life events, such as buying a house. But any cap or restrictions on this will make it increasingly difficult for assets and wealth to be gifted to the next generation. And the joy many get from seeing family members benefit from these gifts will also be lost.
Likewise, any further changes to gift holdover relief, on qualifying assets will again make it more difficult for clients to allow for a smooth transition of their business.”
Graham Doubtfire, Private Client Tax Partner
What changes would you like to see/ would you make as Chancellor?
“I would be totally open and honest with the electorate.
We borrowed some money in Covid which for the long term good of the country we need to pay back.
Putting 2p on income tax would raise around £16bn per annum, and the Personal Allowance could be increased to compensate the lowest paid. It might take 20 years, but it would raise funds whilst only being relatively modest amounts for each taxpayer.”
What do you think we’ll see?
“I think we’ll see further use of Fiscal Drag (one of the biggest tax revenue raising tools for the government) – where further freezing of the various rates and thresholds will drag more people into the next marginal rate of tax, and often they don’t realise its happened.”
What potential change will have the biggest impact on your sector/ service and how?
“Providing some long-term stability on personal finances is what’s needed.
Uncertainty around Capital Taxes and Pensions often has unintended consequences that cannot be predicted.
For example, I’ve heard anecdotal evidence that changing the tax relief on Pension contributions could mean that instead of raising more tax revenue, more people will decide to reduce their working hours. Perhaps going from 5 days a week to 4 and therefore paying less into their pensions. And then despite no more tax revenue being raised there’s an impact on the output these people produce which has a wider impact on the economy and therefore tax revenue.”
Sam Stent, Tax Advisory Partner
What changes would you like to see/ would you make as Chancellor?
“I would introduce non-recoverable VAT on footballer’s transfer fees. Over £3 billion was spent in Summer 2025 alone and 20% of that would go a long way!”
What do you think we’ll see?
“Landlords seem to be a favoured target, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the government introduces NICs on rental income. This would be relatively easy to implement too in conjunction with the quarterly returns required by landlords as part of Making Tax Digital which is being phased in from next year.”
What potential change will have the biggest impact on your sector/ service and how?
“Revisiting the APR/BPR changes and increasing the amount of agricultural or business property eligible for 100% relief from £1m to, say, £5m or £10m, would have a huge impact on our SME and farming clients.”
Chris George, Tax Advisory Partner
What changes would you like to see/ would you make as Chancellor?
“The Chancellor clearly has a significant black hole in the finances. So, part of the solution to fix this would be to cut spending. I’d look at reforming welfare to get the £1million or so inactive working age population into work or training, and I’d trim the size of the civil service which has ballooned in the last decade.
I would then suggest an honest conversation with the public, sharing that, to deliver growth and fully fund priority spending on the NHS, defence and education, I’d need to add 2% to Income Tax. But I’d do it at the same time as increasing the personal allowance – meaning that all individuals would share the burden of tax rises, but the lowest earners would be somewhat protected.”
What do you think we’ll see?
“I think we’ll see some tinkering around the edges in terms of increases in the bank levy, applying NIC to some partnerships and potentially to landlords, and extending the freezing of Income Tax thresholds. These are changes that will impact some businesses significantly but that ultimately won’t raise significant amounts on their own.
I also think there may be some changes to CGT rates and the tightening of some other reliefs.”
What potential change will have the biggest impact on your sector/ service and how?
“The potential NIC changes to partnerships and landlords would have a significant impact on many businesses. Many may then consider incorporation as a result which comes with its own set of challenges.”
When is the Autumn Budget 2025?
This year’s budget will be held on Wednesday 26 November. It usually begins around 1.30pm and follows Prime Minister’s Questions.
Join us the ‘morning after’ for a full Budget analysis
Of course, the true impact of this year’s Budget will only become clear once all the details are announced.
So, to find out more about what the changes will mean for you, join us on Thursday 27 November at our Budget Breakfast event, for expert analysis from our team of specialists. We’ll break down the key announcements and explore how the Budget will affect both personal and business finances.
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