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As the UK housing market continues to stall under the weight of high interest rates and affordability pressures, all eyes will be on the upcoming Autumn Budget on 26 November.
With developers slowing construction projects and first-time buyers struggling to enter the market, the government faces mounting pressure to deliver meaningful reform.
A lofty target of 1.5 million new homes
The Labour government pledged to deliver 1.5 million net additional dwellings in England by the end of this Parliament, expected no later than August 2029.
The ambition is central to their “Plan for Change” and is backed by reforms to the planning system, including:
- Mandatory housing targets for councils
- A review of green belt land to identify “grey belt” areas suitable for development
- A push for 50% affordable housing on released land
- A default “yes” to brownfield development
However, progress is already off track. Between July 2024 and June 2025, only 186,600 homes were added—just 12% of the total target. At this pace, it would take over six years to meet the pledge, taking us well beyond the current parliamentary term.
So, something needs to change to make this happen.
An affordability crisis and developer retrenchment
Developers are pulling back. Planning approvals are at record lows and build costs have surged.
In fact, Shawbrook’s 2025 Developer Survey found that 99% of developers have altered their strategies due to affordability concerns. With many delaying projects or shifting focus away from traditional housing.
And with the Bank of England base rate holding at 4%, and only modest reductions expected through 2026, mortgage costs remain high. This has created a bottleneck: buyers can’t afford to move, and developers won’t build without demand.
Support for first-time buyers
The government currently has few active schemes to support first-time buyers:
There’s the First Homes Scheme: with a 30–50% discount on new builds.
And Shared Ownership and Lifetime ISAs still remain available.
But with the reduction of the Stamp Duty Relief Exemption to £300,000 earlier this year this isn’t enough to counteract current high deposit requirements and mortgage costs.
What might the Autumn Budget bring?
Speculation is rife. But some of the key proposals being floated that would affect the housing market include:
Stamp Duty Reform
There’s been talk of replacing SDLT with an annual property tax on homes over £500,000. Whilst this could simplify initial transactions it would increase long-term costs for buyers.
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) Changes
Following the changes made in the 2024 Budget could there be more here from the Chancellor? Potentially aligning CGT with income tax bands? Or reducing exemptions for primary residences?
This comes with the risk of discouraging property sales and reducing market liquidity though.
National Insurance on Rental Income
NI was a huge talking point at the last Budget, with the increases to employer contributions. But could there be an alternative angle, with rental income possibly becoming subject to NI contributions? Estimated to raise £2 billion a year, this would be significant impact, but there’s a strong risk that it could also drive landlords out of the market.
Green Incentives and Buyer Support
Could the Government look at new schemes for energy-efficient homes? Or will there be a renewed focus on support for first-time buyers ? Details remain vague on this topic so far.
A market in need of clarity and action
The housing market is at a crossroads.
And without bold intervention, the government risks not only missing its housing targets but further deepening the affordability crisis too.
What we need is an Autumn Budget that capitalises on a critical opportunity to:
- Reignite developer confidence
- Support first-time buyers
Reform outdated tax structures
Whether the Chancellor delivers a true lifeline – or merely more uncertainty – is as yet unknown, but what we do know is that it will shape the future of UK housing for years to come.
We’re here to help
For personal advice on any of the topics above, speak to one of the team by calling 0330 058 6559 or email hello@scruttonbland.co.uk
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