We recently published our Sumer Harvest 2026 review Harvest 2026: Farming Resilience and Profitability | Sumer, bringing together the experiences and views of our agriculture specialists from around the UK.
To gain further insight on the impact of this year’s results, Jack Deal, Farms & Estates Partner at Scrutton Bland caught up with Katie Crawford from Ceres Rural to discuss their own 2026 Harvest Review. And having collected over 270 independent sets of harvest results in 2026, from across the country, their results make for interesting reading.
The majority of my clients are based in the East of England and I’ve reflected on 2026 as the earliest harvest I’ve ever seen, affected by significant drought through the spring.
Katie’s view on this is more nuanced;
“Higher than average temperatures, below average rainfall at key stages and consistently high sunshine hours have accelerated crop development throughout the spring and early summer – leading to one of the earliest harvests seen in at least two decades. Whilst the early start aided harvest progress, it was also an early indication that crop yield potential was compromised through reduced tillering, shortened crops and early senescence.”
Katie highlights a decline in cereal yields compared to their respective five-year rolling averages, with winter wheat yields averaging more than 10% below the five-year trend.
But winter oilseed rape was a notable exception. For the second consecutive year, yields exceeded the five-year average, with 2026 results showing an increase of just over 15%. Improved crop establishment, coupled with reduced cabbage stem flea beetle pressure during early autumn, is thought to have contributed significantly to this recovery.
For many of our clients, cashflow is at its tightest in the period immediately before harvest, with a fine balance being drawn to ensure cash from crop sales arrives in time to fund purchases for the coming autumn.
Like us, Katie has been revisiting budgets and cashflow forecasts with clients, with most showing a significant reduction in income compared with original expectations.
Katie says that for some the short-term solution lies in the timing of their crop sales. “Lower yields have also reduced the post-harvest cash injection that many businesses rely upon from committed sales of crops such as winter barley and oilseed rape. So, in response we’re seeing many clients bringing grain sales forward or utilising grain advances to cover the gap to improve funds available to purchase inputs for Harvest 2027.”
As typically happens, many costs for the Autumn have already been committed regardless of harvest performance. Fertiliser purchases have already been secured by many farms, often with payments falling due in December and January. So, with less cash generated from harvest than expected, a growing number of discussions are now focused on working capital requirements, cashflow management and ensuring sufficient funds are available to meet these commitments over the coming months.
We can relate, having worked through these challenges with our clients. Some are looking to the bank for support, extending overdrafts or taking out invoice factoring to pay suppliers. Others are taking a fresh look at their business model and funding strategy and making long term decisions.
We’re working with clients who are moving from in hand farming to contracting, rationalising machinery through sharing agreements and in some cases selling outlying blocks of land.
And I’m reassured, speaking to colleagues around Sumer, that East Anglia’s farmers are not alone in this – there’s been great value in sharing experiences and ideas amongst our national agriculture specialists to support decisions across the UK.
Katie is looking towards the positives:
“Grain prices have strengthened. Typically, clients had budgeted feed wheat at between £175/t and £185/t, depending on location, while market values at the start of the year were typically around £170-175/t. Since mid-July, November 2026 feed wheat prices have consistently traded above £190/t, which provides some support against lower yields and helps to offset part of the income shortfall.
Looking ahead, stronger grain markets have prompted many businesses to look at their crops in store and secure grain sales where appropriate. Contracts exceeding £200/t have generated considerable interest for both harvest 2026 crops and harvest 2027.”
A sentiment we can relate to as many of our clients are making informed decisions about the timing of the sale of their crop. As one recently said to me, ‘why would I hold out for a £5 per tonne price increase when I can clear the shed and rent it out, more than covering the increase?’
For many of Katie’s clients, harvests like this renew their focus on alternative income streams that are less exposed to weather and commodity price volatility. “Many of our post-harvest discussions have centred on identifying consistently underperforming crops and fields and reviewing whether they remain the most profitable use of land.”
Something I recognise within my own client base. A number of my clients have traditionally grown sugar beet but made the decision not to for 2027 whilst uncertainty around the price remained (a negotiated settlement has now been reached).
Impact of the Sustainable Farming Incentive
You’ll certainly already be aware of the recent Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) window 2, which opened on the morning of 22 September and closed mid-afternoon on the same day.
Those I’ve spoken to about it are unanimous that this is no way to run the application process and the uncertainty surrounding it put many off applying.
Thankfully I understand that Ceres Rural were successful in the vast majority of applications for their clients, but as expected some will have missed out.
Katie highlights the attraction of the SFI; “actions such as extended overwinter stubble and cultivated fallow, which carry relatively low establishment and input costs, offer payments of between £589/ha and £660/ha. In some cases, these returns compare favourably with the gross margins being achieved from poorer-performing arable crops.”
She points to Ceres Rural’s harvest review to support this case. “For the second consecutive year, spring barley yields were below the five-year average and approximately 15% lower than those achieved in Harvest 2025. Spring peas showed a similar trend, with yields around 15% lower than 2025 levels and nearly 6% below the five-year average. In many cases, spring barley and spring peas deliver gross margins of less than £500/ha, with even stronger-performing crops only marginally exceeding this level.”
Making data-led decisions
Using this data is hugely beneficial to make the informed decisions required to de-risk your business and stabilise your incomes. Because in a world where volatile weather is becoming the norm, the ability to make data led decisions around what to grow, and when not to grow, is crucial.
We agree that active client dialogue is the only way to help our clients through this difficult time, and we’re both expecting discussions to remain focused on managing imminent cashflow pressures and developing resilient business models that can withstand increasing volatility.
Ceres Rural offer smart business solutions for progressive farmers, landowners, and the rural economy, guided by science and independent advice. From free business advice, to crop management services and support with environmental scheme applications – their specialist team offer a full scope of experience-led farming consultancy, technical support and business management service tailored to your farming business.
